The Trump Campaign Has Peaked Too Soon

With the end of their convention, the Republican Party and Donald Trump have reached what in military theory is called the culminating point. “The culminating point of victory,” according to the Modern War Institute at West Point, “is the threshold when military advantages peak and then rapidly turn into disadvantages.”

As an infantryman, I was taught that the culminating point is a paradox; it’s a moment of maximum vulnerability at a time when you believe you are at maximum strength. Let’s say your platoon has just taken a hill. Exhausted and jubilant, you’ve achieved your objective. Your troops have sent the defeated enemy fleeing down its reverse slope. You stand triumphant atop that hill. Psychologically, you’re vulnerable to believing two things: that your victory is complete, and that your enemy no longer poses a meaningful threat. The temptation then becomes to destroy the last of your enemy, to take more ground. If you do this, if you don’t recognize your culminating point, if you try to remain on the offensive too long instead of setting up a good defense, you become dangerously exposed to a counterattack by a regrouped enemy.

Republicans in Milwaukee this week were jubilant and a little exhausted. They’d taken the hill on their way to the White House. The photo of Trump in the immediate aftermath of the assassination attempt calls to mind the most memorable image of a hill-taking in American history, the photo of Marines on Mt. Suribachi during the Battle of Iwo Jima: the five people in the frame, the diagonal left-to-right composition, the flag.

In the immediate aftermath of the attempt on his life, Trump posted on Truth Social about uniting the country. By striking a conciliatory and unifying tone, Trump seemed to  recognize that he’d reached a culminating point, and that now was the time to consolidate gains and reach out to a wider swath of voters. But his selection of J. D. Vance as his running mate and his combative remarks when accepting his presidential nomination make clear that he will remain on the attack. This renders him vulnerable.

The Republicans may have peaked four months too soon. The Democrats best hope for victory is to regroup and vigorously exploit this vulnerability.

The military theorist Carl von Clausewitz, who fought in the Napoleonic Wars, coined the term culminating point in his treatise, On War. “If one were to go beyond that point, it would not merely be a useless effort which could not add to success,” he wrote. “It would in fact be a damaging one, which would lead to a reaction; and experience goes to show that such reactions usually have completely disproportionate effects.” History is littered with examples of victorious generals who disastrously overextended themselves once they had reached their culminating point. General Douglas MacArthur’s advance toward the Yalu River, which brought China into the Korean War and led to the encirclement of his army, is considered a classic example. Conversely, President George H. W. Bush’s decision at the end of the Gulf War not to pursue Saddam Hussein’s army into Iraq is a textbook example of a leader who understood that he’d reached his culminating point and needed to show forbearance.

To win, Democrats must regroup and counterattack. It seems more and more likely that President Joe Biden will suspend his campaign in the days ahead. If he does, Democrats must return to the first principles of this race: Americans have always wanted a choice other than Biden or Trump. Democrats must provide them with that choice in order to win. An open convention that is well run, with a process that’s perceived as fair, and that produces a fresh ticket, exploits this key Republican vulnerability.

The Democratic National Convention in Chicago is a month away. Several short campaigns followed by an open convention have the potential to reshape the race, to capture the nation’s attention and imagination. Upending the party’s presidential nominating process is a fraught prospect, but for Democrats these are desperate times and, if they want to win, desperate measures are required. Vice President Kamala Harris likely would and should be considered, but she must compete. The Democrats have a deep bench of leadership. An open convention would showcase the next generation. That ticket would be forged in an unprecedented fire.

Will it work?

Maybe.

It is, of course, a huge gamble, a roll of the dice. But in politics, as in war,  every attack is a roll of the iron dice.