How America Lost Its Taste for the Middle

It’s been a rocky year for the type of restaurant that could have served as the setting for an awkward lunch scene in The Office: the places you might find at malls and suburban shopping developments, serving up burgers or giant bowls of pasta and sugary drinks.

The “casual dining” sector—the name the restaurant world gives the sit-down establishments in the middle cost tier of the dining market—has seen some of its heroes fall this year. The seafood chain Red Lobster filed for bankruptcy in May (though a new owner has since emerged to attempt to save it). Another family-friendly giant, TGI Fridays, filed for bankruptcy last month, and the casual Italian-food chain Buca di Beppo did so in August. Denny’s announced in October that it would be closing 150 locations. Applebee’s is in the midst of closing dozens of locations. Adjusted for inflation, spending this year at casual-dining chains is on track to be down about 9 percent relative to a decade ago, according to data that Technomic, an industry research firm, shared with me. And although overall restaurant spending has grown by about 4.5 percent in the past decade, that growth has mainly come from limited-service fast-food and fast-casual chains.

After a bruising few years of pandemic-era inflation, Americans looking to save money have been opting for cheaper, non-sit-down meals. But many consumers are also opting to use the disposable income they do have on upscale dining experiences that feel worth spending on, Alex Susskind, a professor of food and beverage management at Cornell, told me. These patterns leave the middle tier—which is neither the cheapest nor the highest-quality on the market—struggling to keep up.

Restaurants across the board have had a chaotic few years, as consumers stayed home during the early pandemic days and then food inflation exploded (it’s eased a bit lately). The pandemic also solidified the shift toward takeout and delivery: Nearly three-quarters of restaurant meals are now consumed offsite, according to data shared with me by the National Restaurant Association, up from about 60 percent in 2019. About two-thirds of Americans have used a food-ordering app at least once, a Purdue survey earlier this year found—and about half of those who use such apps do so at least once a week.

And younger consumers are prioritizing fast-casual when they do eat out: Between the summers of 2021 and 2022, Gen Zers made more than 4 billion visits to quick-service restaurants, and less than 1 billion to full-service restaurants, according to data from NPD Circana, a market research firm. As their casual-dining brethren suffer, some fast-casual restaurants have been expanding. (The restaurant market isn’t the only sector in which the middle is getting squeezed: At grocery stores, too, many consumers are opting either for upscale goods or discount brands.)

Casual-dining chains have tried to adapt to the times. Some are now promoting elaborate meal deals and deep discounts (see: the “Endless Shrimp” promo that Red Lobster made permanent in a doomed attempt to revive its struggling business last year). But an affordable combo platter only goes so far when people are looking for a different experience entirely: If you want to scarf down a Chipotle burrito in your car, spending an hour eating a chip-burger-soda special in the booth of a Chili’s may not speak to you, even if both cost about $11. Some of these restaurants have started to accommodate takeout—Olive Garden, which had long eschewed such an arrangement, struck a deal with Uber Eats in September. But it’s not an ideal fit: Casual restaurants are expansive, many with dining rooms big enough to accommodate 200 diners. The leases become burdens when no one is sitting in them—and spending on alcohol, which is a significant source of revenue for these places.

Will we soon be living in an America without the casual dining rooms where families gather for special occasions, without waiters in matching polo shirts and bars serving fluorescent cocktails? It’s unlikely, experts told me. The casual-dining sector is likely to keep evolving to meet Americans’ shifting desires, but it’s not going anywhere. It has seen a few bright spots, too: Big chains such as Texas Roadhouse and Chili’s have had solid sales this year. Still, the decline of many of these casual chains represents the diminishing of a third place for social connection in American life, Susskind said. Popping into a Panera to pick up a salad may well be more efficient than sharing big plates of appetizers at an Applebee’s with friends. But an opportunity to spend time around other human beings—to break bread with loved ones, or to watch a game at the bar—is lost.

Related:

Here are three new stories from The Atlantic:

Today’s News

Dispatches

Explore all of our newsletters here.

More From The Atlantic

Evening Read

Unburden Yourself of Secret Shame and Feel Happier

By Arthur C. Brooks

Read the full article.

Culture Break

Watch.Emilia Pérez (streaming on Netflix) is messy, excessive, and manipulative—and spectacular because of it, Shirley Li writes.

Debate. Who wants to sit at a communal table? At popular restaurants across America, it’s become a central element of the dining experience, Ellen Cushing writes.

Play our daily crossword.

Stephanie Bai contributed to this newsletter.

When you buy a book using a link in this newsletter, we receive a commission. Thank you for supporting The Atlantic.